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Friday, May 2nd, 2003

Date:2003-05-02 09:12
Subject:Unemployment rises in April; News roundup
Security:Public

Labor Department unemployment figures show another increase in unemployment, up two-tenths of a point to 6 percent.

Underemployment was also up in April:

Some of the details in the report were more ominous, notably a steep drop in the length of the average workweek, which fell to 34 hours from 34.3 in March. The drop shows businesses were putting the brakes on activity in the month.

"The decline in hours means the economy will be limping along once again," said Anthony Chan, chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors. "Every tenth of an hour lost has the same economic impact as losing 200,000 jobs."


In other news today:

  • The Austin American-Statesman takes a different spin on turnout in the Austin city election. Although the Statesman article notes that turnout will likely surpass 2000's abysmal 7 percent turnout, it takes a longer perspective of the turnout trend, comparing current rates (not estimated above 14 percent according to unnamed consultants) with 30-40 percent turnout in the 1960s. The El Paso Times also has a story on the power of Hispanic and women voters in local elections.

  • The Statesman also quotes a "lukewarm" Rick Perry on the Senate school finance plan.

  • The House approved a new student fee to pay for statues of Barbara Jordan and Cesar Chavez at the University of Texas at Austin on a vote of 107-28. The fee was approved by students in February.

  • House Bill 2 was approved on a 6-0 vote by the House Government Reform Committee on Thursday.

  • The Houston Chronicle reports on redistricting, hinting that another map - possibly more amenable to Democrats - is in the works. The San Antonio Express News reports on how the current proposal would hurt San Antonio Dems. For those who missed it, the Statesman also has a story on the impact of the proposed map on Travis County.


Posted by: Jim D.

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Date:2003-05-02 09:37
Subject:On running a government like a crooked business...
Security:Public
Mood:angry

They say that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, and those Republicans are back at it flattering Enron, Wal-Mart, and other paragons of capitalist virtue (from the Austin American-Statesman | Houston Chronicle story):

A stealth bill has surfaced late in the legislative process that would allow the State of Texas to take out life insurance policies on retired government workers without their knowledge, then collect the benefits when they die.

Rep. Kenny Marchant, R-Carrollton, last week introduced House Bill 3613, a measure mirroring "dead peasant" policies that have generated controversy for companies such as Wal-Mart and Enron Corp. Those and other companies tried to use them in the past to earn tax breaks and generate profits by insuring low-level employees.

It was bad enough that the legally controversial strategy was tacitly condoned by congressional Republicans last year. But the idea of the state being able to cash in on the misfortune of its employees ought to be a little disturbing to, well, just about anybody:
"Is that a new form of a state lottery?" asked Richard Shaw, secretary-treasurer for the Harris County AFL-CIO. "They can call it: You Bet Your Life."

Exactly.

But that's not the whole story. After all, Marchant notes that the state has no profit motive in this (and state pension administrators note they did not ask for the bill). So, then, if it's not going to help the state, why do it?
Scott Clearman, a Houston lawyer who specializes in insurance and has sued Wal-Mart and Dow Chemical Co. on the dead peasant issue, couldn't determine the rationale for the bill.

Insurance policies are priced based on life expectancy and the size of the group insured. With such a short life expectancy among the retirees and a small pool of people, in terms of age, being insured, there appears to be no benefit or loss, Clearman said.

The policies are attractive to companies because of tax benefits, he said. However, the state doesn't pay taxes, nor does it get tax deductions.

"From this angle, it looks like a subsidy to the life insurance industry," Sills said.

You want a smoking gun? Marchant claims the idea of the bill came from a friend of his -- who used to work in the insurance agency.

Posted by: Jim D.

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Date:2003-05-02 10:01
Subject:Ice Cream!
Security:Public

The date for Bruce Elfant's 11th Annual Ice Cream Social has been announced. It will be Sunday, May 18 between 3 and 5 p.m. at the AFL-CIO Hall in downtown Austin.

Admission is $15. Call 467-2504 or the Travis County Democratic Party for more information,

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Date:2003-05-02 10:18
Subject:Hostilities are over... in Puerto Rico
Security:Public

The New York Times has a good report on the end of Navy live ammo drills on the Puerto Rican island of Vieques.

This is a victory for the environment and the people.

At least some people anyway. CBS reports the Navy will probably transfer its exercises to rural Florida.

Still good news though.

Posted by: Jim D.

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Date:2003-05-02 15:39
Subject:Tulia 13 going to the Court of Criminal Appeals?
Security:Public
Mood:anxious

The Associated Press reports that special prosecutors and defense attorneys have agreed to recommend that the Court of Criminal Appeals order the release of thirteen Tulia residents who were dubiously convicted on drug charges due to the testimony of disgraced lawman Tom Coleman:

The agreement, which has not been finalized, encourages the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals to release the 13 on their own recognizance while the appeals court reviews 38 cases spawned by Tom Coleman's 18-month undercover operation, according to a copyright story in Friday's Amarillo Globe-News.

Bond would shorten defendants' jail time significantly, assuming the appeals court agrees with the findings and overturns the cases. The appeals court likely won't rule for at least 90 days, but the ruling may not be released until fall, a source close to the negotiations told the newspaper.

The agreement was hammered out by attorneys on both sides and retired judge Ron Chapman in a Dallas law office Thursday, the source said. The negotiations were confirmed by representatives of the prosecution and the defense, although neither side would provide details, the newspaper reported.


So the case has now been thrown in the lap of the Court of Criminal Appeals, and a whole host of legal issues (including whether guilty pleas can be overturned) might come up in the high court's calculations. And no matter what, there's likely to be controversy:
But the reversal of the Tulia verdicts is not quite a done deal. The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, which has a reputation as a strongly pro-prosecution court, must approve Judge Chapman's recommendation. The appeals court is not bound to accept the recommendation, even though all parties agreed to it. In earlier proceedings, the court indicated that its ruling would revolve around whether there was other evidence of defendants' guilt and whether prosecutors had presented defense attorneys with evidence attacking Coleman's credibility in a timely fashion.

Amarillo attorney Jeff Blackburn, who spent hundreds of hours defending Tulia's victims, was nonetheless optimistic. "The Court of Criminal Appeals will bend over backwards to uphold a conviction, but this is a case with a pervasive pattern of shocking misconduct. Even that court will have a hard time justifying the continued imprisonment of people on the word of someone like Tom Coleman," he told DRCNet.


On the other hand, others have criticized the Court of Criminal Appeals for being too friendly to technicality defenses:
The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals has periodically attracted criticism from the press, attorneys, government officials, and legal scholars. Most negative commentaries have focused upon the court's alleged inclination to reverse convictions for technical or procedural matters unrelated to a defendant's guilt or innocence.


Then again, this encyclopedic article was written some time ago. For more information on the Court's recent decisions, check out Findlaw.com or the Court's Web site.

Posted by: Jim D.

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Date:2003-05-02 17:45
Subject:Redistricting Hearing Today
Security:Public
Mood:angry

Redrawing themselves maps to control the state senate and state house wasn't enough for Texas Republicans. Tom Delay wants a conservative Republican Congressional delegation in Texas, and his plan is to draw new Black and Hispanic majority districts, eliminate white Democrats and make new conservative Republican districts. Here's the Delay-backed plan. It is sponsored by State Rep. Joe Crabb. There's a chance that this bill may pass the state house. Fortunately, it is unlikely that it will pass the state senate. Due to Senate rules, Republicans must convince two senators to vote to bring up the bill. One senator, Eddie Lucio is likely to vote with Republicans in order to be drawn a Congressional seat, but Republicans are still looking for that second vote. I honestly don't see it happening, but you never know. Here's the maps. They're beyond insane:

This is a copy of the Tom Delay Republican plan to redistrict Texas.

These are the current districts.


  • The Tom Delay - Crabb Republican redistricting Plan would create 7 open seats: districts 4,10,11,17,25,27 and 29

  • The Tom Delay - Crabb Republican redistricting Plan would pair the following: Reps Hall (D-Rockwall) and Turner (D-Crockett) in district 5, Reps Barton (R-Ennis) and Edwards (D-Waco) in district 6, Reps. Bell (D-Houston) and Culberson (R-Houston) in district 7, Reps Ortiz (D-Corpus Christi) and Hinojosa (D-Mercedes) in district 15, Reps Combest (R-Lubbock) and Stenholm (D-Avoca) in district 19, Reps. Doggett (D-Austin) and Bonilla (R-San Antonio) in district 23, and Reps Sessions (R-Dallas) and Hensarling (R-Dallas) in district 32.

Here is how each district is changed in geography and partisanship. In many cases, I've made predictions on what would likely happen should these districts be adopted. (Percentage numbers use the average votes received by the 2002 statewide candidates in the district). It's some nasty shit:

  • District 1: Most of Max Sandlin's (D-Marshall) district would remain in tact. However, several counties are shuffled and the district would go from 42% Democratic to 37% Democratic making Sandlin vulnerable to a strong Republican challenge.
  • District 2: Incumbent Jim Turner (D-Crockett) would be moved into district 5. The new 2nd would include much of Turner's east Texas base, but also much of suburban Houston and sweep in to include Gene Green (D-Houston). The district would also go from 44% Democratic to 40%. Turner, Green, both or neither might run in the district and a strong GOP challenge would be likely.
  • District 3: Sam Johnson (R-Plano) would pick up a few of Ralph Hall's rural north Texas counties to help destroy the 4th district. Johnson would be safe.
  • District 4: The district would be an open Hispanic (57%) majority district in Dallas. Rep. Martin Frost (D-Arlington) would likely move to the district, but a Hispanic primary challenger would be possible.
  • District 5: The district looks similar to the current district 5, but the lines are shifted to include Rockwall county (Hall) and Crockett (Turner). The current Representative (Hensarling) is placed in the 32nd, but would probably move back into the 5th to run. Hall could either retire, run in the 5th the 3rd or the 32nd - the three districts that his 4th district would be divided into. Turner could run in this district or move back into the 2nd.
  • District 6: This new district would pair Reps. Joe Barton (R-Ennis) and Chet Edwards (D-Waco) in a new district that includes both of their bases (Ellis County for Barton, McLennan County for Edwards), but ultimately Barton would have a slight advantage. The district would be 38% Democratic (Edwards was re-elected last year in a 37% Democratic district). Barton could also opt to run in the adjacent open district 11.
  • District 7: John Culberson (R-Houston) would be heavily favored over Chris Bell in the 69% Republican new 7th. Bell would likely opt to move back into the 25th but might face a Hispanic or Black primary challenge.
  • District 8: Kevin Brady's (R-The Woodlands) suburban Houston district would remain similar.
  • District 9: Nick Lampson (D-Beaumont) would see his district go from 48% Democratic to 43% Democratic as the district would take in some Houston area suburbs. A strong challenge would be possible from a strong Republican candidate.
  • District 10: The district would be moved out of Travis county (Austin) to a sprawling new Republican district stretching from Llano (just west of Austin) to the New Mexico state line. Travis County and Austin, under the Delay plan would likely be represented by 3 Republicans after 2004: Reps Bonilla, Smith and Paul.
  • District 11: This would be a new Republican district serving suburban and rural areas south of Fort Worth. Rep. Barton may choose to run here, or it could be open.
  • District 12: This would continue to be a safe district for Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth).
  • District 13: This would continue to be a safe district for Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon).
  • District 14: This district would take in parts of northeast Travis county, but would still remain a 60% Republican district, probably safe for Rep. Ron Paul (R-Surfside).
  • District 15: This district would pair Reps Hinojosa (D-Mercedes) and Ortiz (D-Corpus Christi). Hinojosa would be favored in a matchup, but Ortiz might run in the new 27th.
  • District 16: Rep. Reyes (D-El Paso) would have a similar district.
  • District 17: This would be a new Democratic 69% Hispanic majority district primarily along the border including Laredo. The district would contain most of the current 23rd district held by Henry Bonilla, but instead of Republican Bexar County precincts, it would include Democratic portions of Bexar county (San Antonio). Henry Cuellar, Richard Raymond or Judith Zaffirini would all be potential candidates for the seat.
  • District 18: Shelia Jackson-Lee would maintain this Black plurality Houston seat.
  • District 19: This would pair Larry Combest's successor with Charlie Stenholm (D-Avoca). While Stenholm would have the name recognition advantage and is used to winning in heavily Republican areas, he would have to introduce himself to a large number of new Republican voters in Lubbock, and convince them that they should vote for him, a Democrat when they're used to having a Republican represent them.
  • District 20: Charlie Gonzales would be favored for re-election in a district that would include downtown San Antonio, then stretch out to include parts of Guadalupe and Comal counties in an ugly shaped district.
  • District 21: Lamar Smith would represent this radically different district that would stretch from downtown San Antonio to include downtown Austin and east Austin. Lloyd Doggett would probably be most inclined to run in this district if he had to pick as the district would drop from 71 to 55 percent Republican with minorities increasing from 17% to 43%.
  • District 22: Tom Delay, the map architect would obviously have a safe district.
  • District 23: Henry Bonilla's 23rd district is radically changed. No longer does it include any border counties, but rather it goes into take western Travis County. It would make Bonilla's seat much safer, going from 48% to 59% Republican.
  • District 24: Martin Frost's (D-Arlington) district would be radically changed as well going from 58 to 33 percent Democratic by including much of north Dallas. Frost would probably run in the new 4th.
  • District 25: This district would include minority communities of Harris and Fort Bend counties. It would have no incumbent, but Chris Bell could easily move into this 36% Black, 36% Hispanic district, but might face a primary challenge.
  • District 26: Mike Burgess would continue to have a Republican, Denton County based district.
  • District 27: This would be a newly created Hispanic Democratic majority district in south Texas. It is expected that State Sen. Eddie Lucio (D-Brownsville) would receive this district in exchange for supporting the plan in the State Senate. Still, Solomon Ortiz (D-Corpus Christi) might move and run in this district.
  • District 28: Ciro Rodriguez would continue to have a safe Democratic district in San Antonio and South Texas.
  • District 29: This would be a newly created Hispanic 67% majority district in Houston. Gene Green, who represents most of the district could possibly move into the district to run.
  • District 30: This would remain a safe Black plurality Democratic district in Dallas represented by Eddie Bernice Johnson.
  • District 31: This district would be redrawn significantly, including all of Williamson county and adding counties to the north, and losing counties east of Williamson in the current 31st. John Carter would have little trouble getting re-elected.
  • District 32: This district, now a compact north Dallas district would expand to take in several east Texas counties. Pete Sessions and Jeb Hensarling would be paired in the district, but Hensarling would likely run in the 5th, and Sessions could run in either the 24th or 32nd. Ralph Hall could possibly run here, but it would be most likely that he retire under this map.

Posted by: Byron L.

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Date:2003-05-02 21:34
Subject:Fort Worth to Elect a New Mayor Tomorrow
Security:Public

Apologies, as this post was promised yesterday. I got more interested in Austin elections and of course TJ Ford and the Dixie Chicks.

The Fort Worth race has seven candidates, but only two are considered serious: Former State Senator Mike Moncrief and former city council member Cathy Hirt. Both are vying to replace outgoing mayor Kenneth Barr. Hirt and Moncrief agree on most of the major issues, in fact the most interesting aspect of the race is a Montcrief family feud:


The most-talked-about aspect of the race, however, is not a true campaign issue. In the latest twist in a long-standing family feud, Mr. Moncrief's uncle W.A. "Tex" Moncrief and several other Moncrief relatives gave the Hirt campaign more than $200,000 this month. The money represented the vast majority of the approximately $254,000 that Ms. Hirt had raised. She said the money "leveled the playing field" for her to fairly compete against Mr. Moncrief.

Mr. Moncrief won't say much about the contribution by his relatives. He said he brought $150,000 with him from his Senate coffers and has raised "considerably more" since. And if he has to, he said, he'll get more.

"This race isn't about my family," he said. "It's about who has the experience and ability to lead this city in the years ahead. And I believe I bring those qualifications to the table."


The Fort Worth Star-Telegram has asked each candidate about their priorities, here. The Star-Telegram has also endorsed Moncrief.

While Moncrief is a Democrat, he has been endorsed by the Republican Congresswoman for most of Fort Worth (and former mayor), Kay Granger.

I expect Moncrief to win this race. For many years, Moncrief served as Fort Worth's senator in the Texas State Senate. Unfortunately, redistricting destroyed Moncrief's district (which basically ran close to the city limits of Fort Worth) and split Forth Worth in two districts, one district for the northern part of the city and northern suburbs, and one for the southern half of the city and southern suburbs. This made two relatively solidly Republican districts out of a Democratic leaning district. Moncrief did not run for re-election. Personally, I'm happy that the man has an opportunity to continue in public service. He was a fine state senator, and while we miss him in the senate, I'm confident that he will make a great mayor for Fort Worth.

Posted by: Byron L.

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Date:2003-05-02 21:59
Subject:Dallas County School Board Elections Tomorrow
Security:Public

The Dallas County School Board is having elections tomorrow. No one really cares, or knows what they do. However, they play an important role in helping with transportation and technology needs for the many school districts in Dallas County. Hardly anyone votes, or knows anyone running, so in the past, Libertarians and some fringe candidates get elected to this board. It is an important job and fortunately, Dallas is lucky to have some good candidates this year. That's a good thing, because take a look at the current board. It's probably the whitest thing you've ever seen. Good gosh. Martin Hoffman is a good guy and a good Democrat, but the rest are a bunch a spares. This board needs some color, damn it! For that reason, I endorse the two very well qualified minority candidates for the board. Pauline Dixon, the Democratic nominee for the 32nd Congressional District in 2002 is one of those candidates. She's a fabulous lady, and as a former teacher, she'd be a great addition to the Dallas County School Board. I also endorse Lupe Valdez. I don't know too much about her, but if I were a registered voter in Dallas county, I'd vote for her. Larry Duncan is also decent Democratic candidate for the board.

Posted by: Byron L.

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Date:2003-05-02 23:02
Subject:Texas Elections Information
Security:Public

Thanks for following the Burnt Orange Report 2003 Municipal Election Coverage so far. I plan on posting results at some point Saturday night / Sunday morning. I consider myself a political activist first and a web publisher second, so needless to say, I won't be spending my Saturday night at home posting election results. I'll be at victory parties having a good time. When I get home, I'll get online and post results from around the state (unless Jim beats me to it). Here is our Election 2003 articles:


Texas Elections Overview: 2003-04-28- orangereport- Texas Mayoral Elections on Saturday

Early Vote Turnout: 2003-05-01- orangereport- Early voting turnout tallies

Austin Elections: 2003-04-24- orangereport- ACC Ballot Props. | 2003-04-24- orangereport- Austin Elections Info | 2003-04-24- orangereport- Who's in, whose out - Austin mayor election | 2003-04-25- orangereport- Austin's mayoral coronation, errr... race | 2003-04-28- orangereport- Mayoral Money |
2003-05-01- orangereport- Austin City Council Election Spotlight

Dallas Elections: 2003-04-28- orangereport- Dallas Mayoral Election | 2003-05-02- orangereport- Dallas County School Board Election

El Paso Elections 2003-04-30- orangereport- El Paso Mayoral Election spotlight

Fort Worth Elections: 2003-05-02- orangereport- Fort Worth to Elect a New Mayor Tomorrow

San Antonio Elections 2003-04-30- orangereport- San Antonio Mayoral Election

Posted by: Byron L.

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